摘要
气候变化已成为一个全球重点关注的问题,对各个领域影响愈加显著。水资源作为生态系统和人类社会发展的重要基础,同样不可避免地受气候变化的影响。本文利用向量自回归(VAR)模型,研究气候变化对水资源的影响。基于贵州省1995年至2021年的年平均气温、年降水量、年日照时数和水资源量的数据,建立VAR模型进行分析。研究结果表明,气候变化对水资源产生重要的影响,特别是年平均气温的变化对水资源量的影响更为显著。这为制定针对性的水资源管理政策提供了一定的理论基础。同时,本文也为进一步研究气候变化对水资源的影响提供了一种有效的方法。
Climate change has become a global focus,with increasingly significant impacts on various fields.Water resources,as an important foundation for the development of ecosystems and human society,are also inevitably affected by climate change.This paper uses the Vector Autoregression(VAR)model to study the impact of climate change on water resources.Based on the data of annual average temperature,annual precipitation,annual sunshine duration,and water resources volume in Guizhou Province from 1995 to 2021,a VAR model was established for analysis.The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on water resources,especially with changes in annual average temperature having a more significant impact on water resources.This provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of targeted water resources management policies.Meanwhile,this paper also provides an effective method for further further research on the impact of climate change on water resources.
作者
周正
ZHOU Zheng(College of Mathematics and Statistics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)
出处
《黑龙江环境通报》
2024年第8期47-49,共3页
Heilongjiang Environmental Journal
作者简介
周正,硕士研究生,研究方向为数理统计学。
