摘要
为制定有效的安全认知提升策略及减少安全事故的发生,需深入探究洞室施工人员安全认知的演化过程和特征。首先,基于复杂社会技术系统和“2-4”模型(24Model)等相关知识,识别安全认知影响因素,构建洞室施工人员安全认知指标体系;然后,通过Super Decisions软件计算指标权重;随后利用系统动力学(SD)理论,明确各因素间的相互关系,建立包含组织安全管理等4个子系统的SD仿真模型,将以安全投入为基础的认知纠偏机制应用到SD仿真模型;最后,结合实际工程算例开展SD仿真以及敏感性分析。研究表明:随着工程进展,通过增加安全投入,并发挥认知纠偏机制作用,施工人员的整体安全认知由下降趋势转变为缓慢上升趋势;组织安全管理对洞室施工人员安全认知影响程度最大,结果与24Model的基本假设一致,从而验证了SD仿真模型的科学性和有效性。
To propose effective safety cognition strategies and reduce safety accident occurrence,it is urgent to investigate the safety cognition evolution process and characteristics of cavern constructors.Firstly,factors affecting safety cognition were identified based on a complex sociotechnical system and the 24Model,then a safety cognition index system of cavern constructors was proposed.Subsequently,the weight coefficient was calculated by the Super Decisions software.Then,system dynamic(SD)theory was used to determine the interrelationship between factors.SD numerical model was developed including organizational safety management and other three subsystems,and a cognitive correction mechanism based on safety investments was applied to the SD numerical model.Finally,numerical simulations and sensitive analysis were performed by the SD model based on actual engineering examples.The results indicated that the overall safety cognition of cavern constructors changed from a downward trend to an upward trend by increasing safety investments and exerting the role of cognitive correction mechanisms with project processes.Organizational safety management has the greatest influence on the safety cognition of carve constructors,which was consistent with the assumption of 24Model.Therefore,the scientific performance of the SD numerical model was validated.
作者
江新
张腾飞
陈婧
赵力
邱国坤
王辉
JIANG Xin;ZHANG Tengfei;CHEN Jing;ZHAO Li;QIU Guokun;WANG Hui(Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang Hubei 443002,China;Yangtze River Engineering Consultation Company,Changjiang Water Resources and Hydropower Development Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan Hubei 430014,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期22-30,共9页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(52179136)。
作者简介
江新(1966—),男,安徽寿县人,硕士,教授,主要从事工程项目群管理、系统决策理论及安全评价等方面研究。E-mail:zgsxdxjx@qq.com。;通信作者:张腾飞(1999—),男,河南开封人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为工程项目群管理、系统决策理论及安全评价。E-mail:1265720166@qq.com。
