科技遏制导向对中国创新发展构成威胁吗?--基于美国对华经贸政策的事实与验证被引量：11

Does Science and Technology Containment Orientation Pose a Threat to China’s Innovation and Development?Facts and Verifications Based on US Economic and Trade Policies Towards China

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摘要美国近年来对华秉持科技封锁战略、依据出口管制条例(EAR),对我国相关高科技公司实体及相关产业进行技术封锁,企图抑制我国创新发展。本文根据EAR公布的实体清单构建上市公司面板数据,运用变时点DID(time-varying DID)模型研究美国科技封锁事件对我国创新产出的实际影响,并对模型可能存在的处理效应异质性等稳健性问题进行检验。研究表明,美国科技封锁战略短期内抑制我国创新产出,但长期内相关技术封锁措施对我国创新产出起倒逼促进作用。其次,科技遏制将通过技术距离提升、产出效应下降及贸易效应削减方式,对我国创新产出产生不利影响。结合目前的中国实际,我国需坚持创新发展战略目标毫不动摇,同时积极利用国际合作机制,与世界各国探讨建立国际社会新型经贸规则的可能性,多方面应对美国技术封锁事件对我国创新发展的影响。 In recent years,the United States has upheld a science and technology blockade strategy on China and imposed technology blockade on the relevant high-tech companies and related industries in accordance with the Regulations on Export Control(EAR),in an attempt to restrain innovative development in our country.In this paper,panel data of listed companies were constructed according to the entity list published by EAR.The time-varying point DID model was used to study the actual impact of the US technology blockade event on China’s innovation output,and the heterogeneity of processing effects that might exist in the model was considered.The research shows that the science and technology blockade strategy of the United States inhibits Chinese innovation output in the short term,but the relevant technology blockade measures have a negative role in promoting Chinese innovation output in the long term.Secondly,science and technology containment will have an adverse impact on our innovation output by increasing technological distance,decreasing output effect and reducing trade effect.In light of the current situation in China,China should unswervably adhere to the strategic goal of innovative development.At the same time,China should actively make use of international cooperation mechanisms to explore the possibility of establishing new economic and trade rules of the international community with other countries,and respond to the impact of the US technology blockade on China’s innovative development in various ways.

作者金泽虎钱前 Jin Zehu;Qian Qian(Economics School of Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区安徽大学经济学院

出处《技术经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2023年第8期39-52,共14页 Journal of Technology Economics

基金国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“美国贸易政策的不确定性:渊源、验证与中国的反制”(19FGJB005)。

关键词科技封锁创新产出技术距离全要素生产率处理效应异质性 science and technology blockade innovation output technical distance total factor productivity treatment effect heterogeneity

分类号 F752 [经济管理—国际贸易]

作者简介金泽虎,博士,安徽大学经济学院教授教授,研究方向:中国对外经济贸易;钱前,安徽大学经济学院硕士研究生,研究方向:中国对外经济贸易。