摘要
铁矿作为一种重要的战略资源,其生产和消费对世界经济有着重要的影响,研究铁矿国际贸易网络韧性对保障未来铁矿供需安全具有重要意义。本文综合考虑铁矿上下游5大类产品,构建国际贸易网络,从静态和动态(中断模拟)两方面对网络的韧性进行测度,并对5类铁矿产品网络中全球20大经济体的抗干扰性水平进行测度和层级划分。结论表明:(1)铁矿石和块矿贸易网络综合韧性水平较低,废钢贸易网络综合韧性水平中等,钢材和生铁贸易网络综合韧性水平较高,说明产业链上游的铁矿原材料贸易网络韧性低,受到外界干扰后网络受到的影响大;而产业链中下游的铁矿产品贸易网络韧性高,受到冲击后的影响小。(2)在铁矿石、块矿、生铁和钢材贸易网络中,中国的节点抗干扰性水平表现较强,处于第一层,但在废钢贸易网络中处于第二层,因此需加强对废钢产业发展的重视以逐渐提升其抗干扰水平。本文结论对保障全球尤其是中国铁矿产品供需安全、稳定具有现实意义。
As an important strategic resource,the production and consumption of iron ore has significant impacts on the world economy,and it is important to study the resilience of the international trade network of iron ore to ensure the future security of iron ore supply and demand.This study constructed international trade networks by considering five major categories of upstream and downstream products of iron ore,measured the resilience of the networks from both static and dynamic(disruption simulation)aspects,and measured and classified the level of disruption resistance of the top 20 global economies in the networks of the five categories of products.The results show that:(1)The combined resilience levels of the iron ore and lump ore networks are low,the scrap network is average,and the steel and pig iron networks are high,indicating that the iron raw material trade network,which is at the upstream,has low resilience and is severely affected by external disruptions,while the iron product trade networks,which are at the midstream and downstream,have high resilience and are not as severely affected by shocks.(2)In the iron ore,lump ore,pig iron,and steel networks,China’s node resilience level is strong and is positioned in the first tier,but in the second tier in the scrap network,indicating that the development of the scrap industry needs to be emphasized and improved.This paper is of guidance to ensure the security and stability of supply and demand of iron ore products in China.
作者
于娱
马代鹏
王贤梅
YU Yu;MA Daipeng;WANG Xianmei(School of Business,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China)
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期2006-2021,共16页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72171122,71801133)
江苏省研究生实践创新计划项目(SJCX22_0985)。
关键词
铁矿
全产业链
贸易网络
静态韧性
动态韧性
中断模拟
iron ore
whole industrial chain
trade network
static resilience
dynamic resilience
disruption simulation
作者简介
于娱,男,江苏响水人,博士,副教授,研究方向为复杂网络韧性评价、复杂系统评价。E-mail:yuyu0801@139.com;通讯作者:马代鹏,男,甘肃瓜州人,硕士研究生,研究方向为评价理论与方法。E-mail:ma_daipeng@163.com。
