摘要
我国作为农业大国,在实现"碳达峰、碳中和"的目标背景下,更应重视农业领域的碳排放问题。基于农地利用、农田土壤、水稻种植和畜牧养殖四大类农业碳排放源,测算分析了宁夏2000—2019年农业碳排放时序特征,运用Kaya恒等式分析了农业碳排放的驱动机理,并进一步采用Tapio脱钩模型分析了农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系,研究表明:1)2000—2019年宁夏农业碳排放量呈现总体上升的趋势,但增速逐渐趋缓;2)农业生产效率、农业产业结构和农业劳动力因素对碳排放具有负向驱动作用,农业经济发展水平和城镇化水平因素对农业碳排放具有正向驱动作用,其中,农业生产效率对碳排放的抑制作用最强,农业经济发展水平对碳排放的促进作用最强;3)2000—2019年宁夏农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩弹性特征以负脱钩为主,增长连接和强脱钩的脱钩特性次之。总体来看,宁夏农业经济增速保持持续增长的同时,农业碳减排也取得了一定的成效。
As a large agricultural country,China should pay more attention to the problem of carbon emission in the field of agriculture under the background of realizing the goal of“Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization”.Based on the four major agricultural carbon emission sources of agricultural land use,farmland soil,rice planting and animal husbandry,the temporal characteristics of agricultural carbon emission in Ningxia from 2000 to 2019 are calculated and analyzed,the driving mechanism of agricultural carbon emission is analyzed by using Kaya identity,and the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emission and agricultural economic growth is further analyzed by using Tapio decoupling model.The research shows that:1)From 2000 to 2019,Ningxia’s agricultural carbon emissions showed an overall upward trend,but the growth rate gradually slowed down;2)The factors of agricultural production efficiency,agricultural industrial structure and agricultural labor force have a negative driving effect on carbon emission,and the factors of agricultural economic development level and urbanization level have a positive driving effect on agricultural carbon emission.Among them,agricultural production efficiency has the strongest inhibition effect on carbon emission,and the level of agricultural economic development has the strongest promotion effect on carbon emission;3)From 2000 to 2019,the decoupling elastic characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Ningxia were mainly negative decoupling,followed by the decoupling characteristics of growth connection and strong decoupling.Overall,while the agricultural economic growth in Ningxia maintained sustained growth,agricultural carbon emission reduction also achieved certain results.
作者
桂河
李静
尚梦媛
GUI He;LI Jing;SHANG Mengyuan(Information Center of Agricultural and Rural Department of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan 751502,Ningxia,China;Party School of CPC Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps(School of Administration),Wujiaqu 851503,Xinjiang,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第6期37-44,共8页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology（Social Sciences）
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“兵团兴边富民行动实践与58个边境团场守土固边研究”(18CGL050)。
作者简介
第一作者:桂河(hepintianshi@163.com),经济师;通信作者:李静(305337193@qq.com),副教授。
