摘要
为了合理地表征滑面的抗剪强度参数,针对参数的空间变异性与不确定性问题,以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,基于随机场、自适应条件抽样与可靠度贝叶斯更新方法,建立滑面抗剪强度参数的反演框架.采用新的全局敏感性方法PAWN,研究不同位置条块滑面抗剪强度参数对稳定性的贡献度.基于滑面抗剪强度参数随机场模型的反演结果,开展库水位下降工况下非侵入式随机有限元滑坡渗流变形的模拟,分析更新前、后滑面抗剪强度参数的变化特征及空间变异性对滑坡变形的影响.结果表明:敏感度大的区域分布在滑坡前缘和后缘道路附近;反演后平稳随机场变为非平稳状态,滑坡前、后缘的位移变异性分别增大和减小.
The process of back analysis was constructed based on the random field method,adaptive conditional sampling algorithm and Bayesian updating with structural reliability method by taking Baishuihe landslide as a case in order to characterize the spatial variability and uncertainty of shear strength parameters in sliding zone.A new global sensitivity analysis method named PAWN was adopted to analyze the relative influence of shear strength parameters of slices on the factor of safety.The seepage-deformation simulation with non-intrusive stochastic finite element method was conducted based on the inversion results of the random field model for sliding surface.The variation characteristic and spatial variability before and after update was explored,and its effect on the displacement was analyzed.Results show that the area of large sensitivity index is located on the front and trailing edge of landslide.The non-stationary random field is formed after the inversion.The displacement variability on the trailing edge decreases,while that on the front of landslide increases.
作者
薛阳
吴益平
苗发盛
李麟玮
XUE Yang;WU Yi-ping;MIAO Fa-sheng;LI Lin-wei(Engineering Faculty,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《浙江大学学报（工学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期1118-1127,共10页
Journal of Zhejiang University：Engineering Science
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1501301)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41977244,42007267).
关键词
抗剪强度参数
滑带
随机场模型
贝叶斯反演
全局敏感性
shear strength parameter
sliding zone
random field model
Bayesian updating
global sensitivity
作者简介
薛阳(1994—),男,博士生,从事斜坡工程稳定性评价的研究.orcid.org/0000-0002-6814-4428.E-mail:EGXYang@163.com;通信联系人:吴益平,女,教授,博导.orcid.org/0000-0001-7862-0283.E-mail:ypwu@cug.edu.cn。
