摘要
为提高航空公司安全管理水平,利用集成决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)和解释结构模型(ISM)方法,分析航空公司安全风险,识别航空公司运行中潜在的风险因素,建立系统因素分析的DEMATEL-ISM模型;采用DEMATEL方法计算各因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度和原因度,确定因素的因果属性,找出系统中的关键因素;利用ISM方法划分系统层次结构,建立系统因素的多级递阶层次结构模型;以国内某航空公司为例,验证DEMATEL-ISM模型的有效性。结果表明,利用该模型可确定系统中的5个关键原因因素和5个关键结果因素,递阶层次结构可将系统因素分为3个类别,即直接因素、间接因素和根本因素。模型分析结果与航空公司运行实际情况一致,可为航空公司安全风险管理相关决策提供理论支持。
The given paper is aimed at identifying and examining the potential risk factors of the airline company safety by building up an indicating system of the airline safety risk factors involved.And,then,we have built up a DEMATEL-ISM model to improve and heighten the safety management level of the airline through analyzing the airline safety risk factors and the risk factors of the airline safety by integrating the DEMATEL and ISM methods.To achieve the above said purposes,it would be necessary to calculate and determine the direct influential matrix of the system factors and determine the causative attributes of the factors by finding out the key factors in the system of the comprehensive influential matrix by calculating the affecting and affected degrees,the centrality and the influential degree of each factor by using the DEMATEL method.Actually,the overall influential matrix of the system can be calculated and determined based on the comprehensive influence matrix and the reachable matrix by choosing an appropriate threshold.And,finally,the system hierarchical structure can be made to build up a multi-level hierarchical structure model of the risk factors with the ISM method by taking an airline in China as a case study sample to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the said model.Thus,in accordance with the results of the above calculation,it would be possible to determine the causative attributes of each factor by identifying the key causative factors and key consequential factors in the said model.And,so,the system factors of the hierarchical structure can be divided into 4 layers,whereas the system factors can be divided into 3 categories,namely,the direct factors,the indirect factors and the fundamental factors on account of the accident causative theory of the system security.What is more important,the model analysis results prove to be consistent with the actual operation routine of the airline so as to be able to provide a theoretical support for the airline safety risk management related decisions.
作者
岳仁田
韩亚雄
YUE Ren-tian;HAN Ya-xiong(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期2091-2097,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金民航联合研究项目(U1533112)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(61571441)
科技部国家重点研发计划基金项目(2016YFB0502405)。
作者简介
岳仁田,副研究员,博士,从事空中交通规划与管理研究,rtyue@cauc.edu.cn。
