摘要
研究目标:总结人工智能作为新一代信息技术的技术-经济特征,厘清其对宏观经济增长、劳动就业及收入分配的影响机制,就人工智能热潮下中国经济增长和就业的演进趋势进行展望,并给出应对思路和建议。研究方法:以前沿文献和增长理论、发展经济学理论为基础,运用归纳演绎的方法对人工智能的技术-经济特征和影响机制进行梳理;通过数据整理和趋势分析,就中国经济增长和就业分配可能受到影响进行情景分析。研究发现:人工智能的渗透性、替代性、协同性和创造性四项技术-经济特征,能推动国民经济各领域各部门高质量增长,而其自身规模壮大也有助于增长质量的提升。人工智能及自动化推进中,替代效应与抑制效应作用下就业总量将保持基本稳定,但结构性冲击不可避免。中间层岗位容易被替代,就业结构将呈两极化趋势;伴随结构调整,初次分配中劳动份额将降低,被替代行业中教育和技能水平较低、年龄偏大人群所受损失最大,并扩大收入差距。劳动成本攀升将加速人工智能在中国的推广应用,有力支撑未来中国经济高质量增长;但岗位结构与年龄构成错配和整体受教育程度偏低相叠加,可能在中短期内造成较为严重的结构性失业,扩大不同群体间的收入差距。研究创新:归纳提炼出新式人工智能的技术-经济特征及其对增长、就业的作用机制,就未来中国经济增长和就业可能出现的情景进行推演预判。研究价值:及早警示人工智能技术对经济和社会可能带来的负面影响,并从产业政策、行业规制、社会保障和教育培训等方面提出对策建议。
Research Objectives: Summarize the techno-economic features of AI as the new-generation information and communication technology, clarify AI s influencing mechanism on macroeconomic growth, employment and income distribution, and provide a development outlook, against the backdrop of the current AI boom, on China s economic growth and employment, as well as relevant suggestions on coping strategies. Research Methods: Based on leading literature review, growth theory and development economics, the paper applies induction and deduction methods to identify AI s techno-economic features and its influencing mechanism. Statistical data and trend analysis are conducted so as to provide an insight on AI s impact on China s economic growth, employment and distribution. Research Findings: With its four techno-economic features,such as,pervasiveness, substitution, synergy/cooperativeness and creativeness, AI can not only promote high-quality growth across various economic sectors, but also contribute to the upgrading of macroeconomic growth through its own expansion. With the progression of AI and other automation technologies, aggregate employment is projected to stay relatively stable as a result of the interaction between displacement and countervailing effects.Yet structural shocks to the labor market can hardly be avoided. Middle class occupations are more prone to be displaced/automated, leaving the job market to polarize into its higher and lower ends. Along with such structural shifts, the overall labor share after the primary distribution of national income will fall off. The senior labor cohort who are susceptible to automation but stuck with lower than average educational and skill levels will suffer the greatest welfare loss, and income disparity within the labor force will enlarge thereafter. The increasing labor cost in China will accelerate the application of AI, which may in the end become a strong pillar for China's high-quality ec onomic growth. However, the current mismatch between the newly adjusted employment structure and China s labor demographics, together with deficient educational attainment of the workforce, may lead to serious structural unemployment and widening income gap in the short and medium term. Research Innovations: This paper has identified the techno-economic features of the new-generation AI and its influencing mechanism on growth and employment. A forecast on China's economic growth and employment has also been deduced. Research Value: Provide an early alert to AI s potential negative impact on the economy and society, and propose policy suggestions regarding industrial policy, market regulation, social security and education and training system.
作者
蔡跃洲
陈楠
Cai Yuezhou;Chen Nan(Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期3-22,共20页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
中国社会科学院创新工程项目"ICT
数字经济与经济发展质量研究"(10620191001006)
国家社科基金重点项目"数字经济对中国经济发展的影响研究(18AZD006)"等资助
关键词
人工智能
技术-经济特征
高质量增长
就业结构
分配格局
Artificial Intelligence
Techno-Economic Feature
High-Quality Growth
Employment Structure
Income Distribution Pattern
