摘要
以华北地区和三河—平谷8级地震构造区为研究区域,采用华北历史地震目录和现代中小地震目录,在地震目录完整性分析的基础上,基于G-R关系用最小二乘法对华北地区与三河—平谷地区的b值和复发周期进行时间扫描计算。计算结果表明华北地区和三河—平谷地区b值自1976年唐山地震以来趋于稳定,分别为0.67和0.82;而华北地区和三河—平谷地区的7、8级地震复发周期自1976年唐山地震以来逐渐增大,直到2015年分别在50、200年和5000、35000年以上,这说明三河—平谷地区在未来很长一段时间内地震活动处于平静期。
Taking the North China and Sanhe-Pinggu M8. 0 seismic tectonic zone as the study area,we used the historical catalogs of North China and the catalogs of modern small and medium earthquakes,and conducted time scanning calculation of the b-value and the recurrence period of North China and Sanhe-Pinggu area by the least squares method,based on the integrity analysis of the earthquake catalogs and G-R relationship. The results show that the b-value in north China and Sanhe-Pinggu area,being 0. 67 and 0. 82 respectively,has stabilized,while the recurrence periods of M7 and M8 earthquakes have been increasing since the Tangshan earthquake in 1976. By 2015,the recurrence periods of M7 earthquakes are 50 and 5000 years respectively,while those of M8 earthquakes are 200 and 35000 years respectively in north China and the Sanhe-Pinggu area,which indicated that earthquake activities in Sanhe-Pinggu area is in a long quiet period in the future.
作者
肖修来
李莹甄
许同旭
沈军
Xiao Xiulai;Li Yingzhen;Xu Tongxu;Shen Jun(Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China)
出处
《防灾科技学院学报》
2017年第4期23-29,共7页
Journal of Institute of Disaster Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金(41372216)
国家大学生创新项目(20151175006)
作者简介
肖修来（1994-），男，本科，主要从事地震预报方向的研究。;通讯作者：李莹甄（1968-），女，本科，副研究员，主要从事地震预报方向的研究。
