摘要
要素投入在中国经济的波动与增长关系中扮演着何种角色,一直缺乏与理论逻辑一致的经验分析和证据。本文借助结构GMM模型,首次运用省级年度面板数据进行了模拟和实证,我们的实证显示:要素投入特别是资本要素的投入对解释中国经济波动与经济增长(稳态消费增长)关系发挥着重要的链条作用,但"主观学习"要素投入的作用则不明显。我们发现了以下简单但显著的规律性链条:"经济波动增加—资本投入增加—经济增长加快"。因此,单纯的资本要素投入虽然能暂时缓解经济波动和刺激经济增长,但并不能有效地激励"主观学习"投入及技术创新。在经济下行波动压力明显的环境下,坚定不移地抑制简单资本投入冲动,"简政放权",激励市场机制发挥作用,从而促进"主观学习"投入在经济增长中的贡献,应成为控制经济波动、实现经济健康成长的长效机制。
As we have been lack of empirical evidence on the role of factor inputs in the relationship between economic fluctuation and growth in China,this paper provides some evidence on this topic with a structural GMM model and province-year panel data in China. Our evidence shows that factor inputs,especially capital investments,play an important chain role to explain the relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth（ steady state of consumption growth） in China,but the role of ＂subjective learning＂inputs is not obvious. We find the following simple but significant regularity of the chain： ＂as economic fluctuation increase,capital investment increase,then higher economic growth rate ＂. Thus,even though the pure capital inputs can temporarily alleviate the economic fluctuation and stimulate economic growth,it does not effectively motivate ＂subjective learning＂inputs and technological innovation. In order to promote the contribution of ＂subjective learning＂in economic growth under the obvious economic downward pressure,we should resolutely curb simple capital investment impulse,＂streamline government and delegate authorities＂,and stimulate the function of market mechanism,which should be the long- term mechanism to regulate economic fluctuation and achieve sustainable economic growth.
出处
《产业经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期74-86,共13页
Industrial Economics Research
基金
国家社科重大项目(15ZDA013)
关键词
经济波动
要素投入
“主观学习”投入
经济增长
结构估计模型
economic fluctuation
factor inputs
＂Subjective Learning＂
economic growth
structural estimation model
作者简介
邓可斌（1977-），男，广东罗定人，华南理工大学经济与贸易学院教授，经济学博士，研究方向为发展经济学；
刘烨（1980-），女，湖南湘潭人，南京大学工程与管理学院讲师，金融学博士，研究方向为金融经济学；
汪修宇（1993-），男，江苏南京人，清华大学五道151金融学院硕士研究生，研究方向为金融经济学。
