摘要
通过对欧洲中心数值预报细网格（以下简称＂ECthin＂）10m风场在2013年第19号超强台风＂天兔＂影响过程中的订正预报效果进行分析,结果表明：（1）预报格点值经过1.6～1.8倍阵风系数的人工订正后,模式预报的福建沿海大风的阵风量级和变化趋势与极大风速实况较为吻合;（2）崇武台站极大风速与ECthin 10m风场预报值在风速变化趋势上具有非常好的一致性,两者的平均绝对误差值≤1.1m/s。因此,ECthin 10m风场在此次台风大风预报中具有较好的应用价值,这也为开展沿海大风精细化预报提供了很好的支撑。
Based on the ECMWF thin-grid （ECthin） 10 m wind fields,the forecast amendment effect of the 19th super typhoon“Tiantu” in 2013 are investigated in this study. The results show that the gust magnitude and variation trend in Fujian coastal area which is based on model prediction tallies with the observational wind field after taking a manual correction on the forecast grid point values by 1.6 to 1.8 times＇ gust factor. There is good consistency in the maximum wind speed of Chongwu station and the ECthin 10 m wind field predictand, the average absolute error of wind velocity is less than 1.1 m/s. Therefore,the ECthin 10m wind fields embodies the good application value in the typhoon wind forecast,which provides a good support on the refined weather forecast of the coastal wind.
出处
《气象水文海洋仪器》
2015年第3期7-12,共6页
Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments
基金
福建省气象局青年科技专项(2011Q08)
石狮市科技计划项目(2013SK13)共同资助
作者简介
林中鹏（1984-），男，大学，工程师．主要从事短期天气预报．
