摘要
从水资源与城市化相互影响的系统角度,基于反馈回路构建系统动力学模型,以乌鲁木齐市为例,设定5种水资源配置方案,模拟预测2012—2030年城市发展指标值和生产、生活、生态用水量及缺水程度等,根据水资源利用与城市化发展综合效益最大化的原则确定最优方案。结果表明:方案5能扭转水资源与城市化系统恶化趋势,实现水资源、环境和经济社会效益最大化。该方案通过调水、节水和调低城市发展速度,在2013年实现缺水程度为0,且第一产业用水比例递减,生态用水比例递增,废污水排放量较小,2030年总产值可达24751.74亿元,三次产业结构比例为0.47∶29.49∶70.04,总人口为467.78万,城镇化率为97%,用水总量为18.54亿m3。提出应加强城市化进程中经济增速控制和产业结构调整,以适应水资源配置。
From the system angle of water resources and city interacting and based on system feedback loop,this paper built a system dynamics model. Taking Urumqi as an example,it set 5 kinds of water resources allocation schemes to simulate and predict city development index values and the water use of production,life,ecological and water shortage degree etc. from 2012 to 2030,and determined the optimal scheme according to the principle of comprehensive benefit maximization between water utilization and city development. The result shows that the fifth scheme can reverse the deterioration trend of water resources and city system,and can realize the maximum benefits of water resources,environment,economy and so-ciety. Through transferring water,saving water and regulating the urbanization speed of oasis city,the scheme can achieve 0 degree of water short-age. The first industrial water ratio is decreasing while the ecological water ratio is increasing. In 2030,the total output value will be 2 475. 174 billion Yuan（RMB）,and the industrial structure will be 0. 47：29. 49：70. 04. At the same time the total population will be 4. 6778 million,the urbanization rate will be 97% and the water consumption will be 1. 854 billion cubic meters. It is proposed to adjust the economic growth speed and industrial structure of urbanization to adapt to the allocation of water resources.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第7期65-68,72,共5页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71163039)
新疆维吾尔自治区研究生教育创新计划重点科研项目(XJGRI2013142)
2013年新疆财经大学研究生科研项目(13cdyjs020)
作者简介
姬卿伟（1986-），女，河南长垣人，硕士研究生，研究方向为宏观经济统计。
通信作者：孙建光（1968-），男，新疆昌吉人，教授，博士，主要从事水土资源利用、环境统计与经济核算工作。E-mail：sjgsw@xlufe．com
