摘要
中国计划在2004～2020年间分三期建成相当于90天净进口量的战略石油储备量。第一期1368万吨的库容已经基本建成,第二期与第三期均为2800万吨,三期共计6968万吨(约合5.13亿桶)。第二期已经完成选址。本文经过分析与测算发现,上述计划过于保守,2020年很可能无法达到预定的目的。为此,笔者建议将三期规划的库容增加到8.95亿桶,而且最好在2015年前完成。作者旨在证明:此举在时间上可行、经济上可承受、战略上有必要。
According to China＇s Strategic Petroleum Reserve （SPR） Plan, China＇s SPR in 2020 will equate to 90 days net import of oil by the country. This capacity will be built up across three phases. The first phase, which has already completed, calls for a reserve of 13.68 million tons Of oil. The second and third phases each plans to build up a capacity of 28 million tons of oil, making the total 69. 68 million tons, or 513 million barrels. However, as this article shows, the 2020 target is far too conservative, con- sidering China＇s projected economic growth in the next decade and its corresponding rise in energy demands. Even when taking into account the growth of China＇s domestic oil production, China will still need to import 0.94 million tons （6.92 million barrels） of oil by 2015; by 2020, this figure will rise to 1.35 million tons （9. 95 million barrels）. These figures translate to reserves of 84.76 million tons （623 million barrels） and 122 million tons （895 million barrels） in 2015 and 2020, respectively. The authors propose revising the 2020 figure in accordance to these projections so as to meet China＇s strategic plans, and go on to show that a timetable for the proposed figure is theoretieally achievable and economically viable.
出处
《当代亚太》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第2期73-92,共20页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
关键词
战略石油储备
规模
缺陷
应对
Strategic Petroleum Reserves / Scale / Flaw / Remedy
