摘要
住房和股票是中国家庭境内投资的重要内容。因此,家庭住房和股票投资结构变化和策略变化会显著影响房地产市场和股票市场波动,这会对跨境资本流动产生直接或间接影响。本文采用中介效应检验模型考察了家庭住房和股票投资对我国跨境资本流动的间接影响,主要得出以下三点结论:第一,家庭住房和股票投资通过国房景气指数及上证综合指数对跨境资本流动产生影响;第二,相对于住房投资,家庭股票投资对短期跨境资本流动的影响更大;第三,家庭住房和股票投资增加会促进短期跨境资本流入,挤出长期跨境资本。建议关注家庭住房和股票投资规模变动;丰富金融市场投资工具,优化家庭资产配置结构,提升多元化资产配置效率;关注短期跨境资本流动规模和流动方向,建立完善的宏微观审慎管理框架,促进经济可持续发展。
Housing and stock investmentare important parts of domestic investment for Chinese families,sothe structure and strategy changesof household housing and stock investment will significantly affect the volatility of the real estate market and stock market,which will have adirect or indirect impact on cross-border capital flows.This paper analyzes the effect of household housing and stock investment on cross-border capital flows in China by mediation effect test model,the conclusions are as follows:Firstly,household housing and stock investment indirectly affect cross-border capital flows through the national housing prosperity index and the Shanghai Composite Index;Secondly,compared with housing investment,householdstock investment has a greater effect on short-term cross-border capital flows;Thirdly,the increasing household housing and stockinvestment will promote short-term cross-border capital inflow,and promote long-term cross-border capital outflow.We proposes to pay attention to the scale of household housing and stock investment changes,avoid the capital market bubbles because oflarge amount of household assets rush to domestic stock market and real estate market;enrich financial market investment tools,optimize household asset allocation structure and improve the efficiency of diversified asset allocation;pay attention to the scale and direction of short-term corss-border capital flows,build up the framework of macro and micro-prudential management,avoid the regional and systemic financial risks and then promote sustainable economic development.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第11期93-96,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社科基金重点项目课题“:新常态下人民币从外围货币向中心货币升级的路径研究”(项目编号:17AJL016)的阶段性研究成果.
关键词
跨境资本流动
家庭住房投资
家庭股票投资
中介效应检验模型
Corss-border capital flows
Household housing investment
Household stock investment
Mediation effect test model
