摘要
以北京市六环范围为研究区域,基于爱彼迎(Airbnb)网站相关民宿数据,采用标准差椭圆、核密度、随机森林等分析方法,探究民宿时空分异特征、影响因素及未来趋势。结果表明:(1)2012—2018年北京市民宿分布重心由东北向南移动,民宿的分布早期呈东南至西北分布,后期呈现向四周均匀分布的格局。(2)2012—2018年北京市民宿集聚呈现由弱集聚到强集聚再到较强集聚态势,随着时间的推移集聚态势逐渐趋于平稳。(3)早期民宿分布呈现双核结构,以东城区和西城区为双核心,后期向多中心态势发展,昌平、丰台等外围区域成为新中心。(4)随机森林模型有较高的拟合精度,能够更好地解释民宿空间分异的影响机制,人口密度、高等教育密度、距市中心距离、公交车站、旅游景区是影响民宿空间分异的主要因素,对民宿分布的作用呈现非线性、复杂性。(5)根据北京市民宿分布预测结果,相关部门可以有针对地对民宿进行管理和调控,推动北京市民宿业高质量发展。
Taking Beijing inside the 6 th ring road area as the research object and based on the relevant B&B(Bed and breakfast)data from the Airbnb website,this paper explores the characteristics of spatio-temporal differentiation,influencing factors and development trends of B&B by the means of standard deviation ellipse,kernel density,random forest and other analysis methods.The results show that:1)From 2012 to 2018,the gravity center of distribution of B&B in Beijing moved from the northeast to the south.B&B mainly distributed in the southeast and the northwest in the early period,and showed even distribution in the later period.2)From 2012 to 2018,it showed a fluctuating characteristic that is in the following order:weak agglomeration,strong agglomeration,strong agglomeration and stabilized agglomeration.3)The distribution of B&B showed a dual-core structure in the early stage,which took Dongcheng District and Xicheng District as dual cores.In the later period,it showed a multi-center development trend,expanding to Changping District,Fengtai District and other peripheral areas.4)The random forest model has a high fitting accuracy and can better explain the influence mechanism of the spatial differentiation of B&B.Population density,the number of people in higher education,the distance from the city center,bus stations and tourist attractions are the main factors that affect the spatial differentiation of B&B.Factors that have nonlinear and complex effects on the distribution of B&B.5)According to the results of the Beijing B&B predictions,relevant departments can manage and regulate the distribution of B&B in a targeted manner to promote the high-quality development of Beijing’s B&B industry.
作者
梅林
姜洪强
MEI Lin;JIANG Hongqiang(School of Geographical Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,Jilin,China;School of Management,Changchun University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130122,Jilin,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期213-222,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41471111)
关键词
Airbnb
民宿
空间集聚
预测
人口密度
交通便捷度
公共服务水平
Airbnb
B&B(Bed and breakfast)
spatial differentiation
forecasting
population density
traffic convenience
public service level
作者简介
梅林(1962-),女,吉林长春人,教授,研究方向为人文地理、旅游管理和城乡规划。E-mail:meil682@nenu.edu.cn
