摘要
矿井瓦斯涌出量预测对于煤矿的安全生产至关重要。为精确预测煤矿瓦斯涌出量,以ARIMA时间序列模型为基础,分析预测了煤矿瓦斯涌出量,并以乌东煤矿为例,建立乌东煤矿西区瓦斯涌出量预测指标体系,利用ARIMA模型进行瓦斯涌出量预测。结果表明:预测值与实际值对比,ARIMA瓦斯涌出量预测最大相对误差3.62%,最小相对误差1.84%,平均相对误差0.13%,ARIMA预测模型可以有效预测煤矿瓦斯涌出量,为煤矿安全生产提供重要依据和参考。
The prediction of gas emission rate is very important for the safety production of coal mine.In order to predict the gas emission rate of coal mine accurately,the gas emission rate of coal mine was analyzed and predicted based on ARIMA time series model.Taking Wudong coal mine as an example,the prediction index system of gas emission rate in the west area of Wudong coal mine was established,and the ARIMA model was used to predict coal mine gas emission.The results of gas emission prediction using ARIMA model show that the maximum relative error is 3.62%,the minimum relative error is 1.84%,and the average relative error is 0.13%.The ARIMA prediction model can effectively predict the gas emission rate of coal mine,and provide important basis and reference for coal mine safety production.
作者
李金生
LI Jin-sheng(High-end Equipment R&D Center,Shendong Coal Group Co.,Ltd.,Shenmu 719315,China)
出处
《陕西煤炭》
2020年第S02期6-10,共5页
Shaanxi Coal
作者简介
李金生(1985—),男,甘肃天水人,2019年毕业于中国矿业大学安全工程专业,硕士,工程师,现从事设备研发方面的工作。
