摘要
本报告共分为六个部分,尝试从总量、结构的角度回答债务的边界这一问题。第一,改革开放以来,我国在不同时期存在债务积累过度和不足的问题,但整体来说没有出现大的金融危机和经济衰退,举债主体由政府和国企转向了政府、企业和居民。第二,在常态下,债务与经济增长呈现倒U形关系,短期债务能刺激经济增长而长期债务则会抑制经济增长,而每次金融危机前都存在过度举债的问题。第三,从经济结构看,自2012年以来,产业升级和消费升级使得市场内生信贷大幅放缓,而债务增长乏力又带来经济不景气。第四,影子银行可分为典型性影子银行和非典型性影子银行,应分类施策,并且要注意次生风险。第五,对地方政府隐性债务来说,建议对存量债务实行有条件的置换,对增量债务应做到明确政府的边界、增加效率和透明度。第六,从国际上防范债务风险的经验上看,既有提高汇率灵活性、降低货币错配等可吸取的经验,也存在杠杆的顺周期性等引以为戒的教训。
This report is divided into six parts,trying to answer"Border of Debt"from the perspective of amount and structure.Firstly,since the reform and opening up,China has experienced excessive and insufficient debt accumulation in different periods,but overall there has been no severe financial crisis and economic recession.The main borrowers have shifted from the government and state-owned enterprises to the government,enterprises and residents.Secondly,under normal circumstances,debt and economic growth show an inverted U-shaped relationship.Short-term debt can stimulate economic growth while long-term debt can inhibit economic growth.However,before each financial crisis,there is an excessive debt problem.Thirdly,from the perspective of economic structure,since 2012,industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading have slowed down the growth of endogenous credit in the market,while the sluggish growth of debt has led to recession.Fourthly,shadow banking can be divided into typical shadow banking and atypical shadow banking.We should classify the measures and pay attention to secondary risks.Fifthly,for the implicit debt of local governments,it is suggested that the stock debt should be replaced conditionally,and the new debt should be efficient and transparent.Lastly,from the international experience of debt risk prevention,there are not only lessons that can be learned such as improving exchange rate flexibility and reducing currency mismatch,but also lessons that cannot be learned such as the pro-cyclicality of leverage.
出处
《新金融评论》
2019年第3期18-44,共27页
New Finance Review
关键词
债务
经济增长
经济结构
影子银行
Debt
Economic Development
Economic Structure
Shadow Banking
作者简介
张斌,中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员
