摘要
基于增加值贸易跨境生产活动视角,构建了全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)与全球价值链(GVC)生产分解模型之间的有效链接,以期探究特朗普减税对中美全球价值链参与度的重构效应。研究发现:(1)运用GTAP模型模拟特朗普税改的宏观经济政策效应,结果显示特朗普税改导致美国GDP增速提高1.03%,中国GDP增速降低0.49%。(2)基于国家层面的全球价值链前向与后向分解,特朗普税改主要对中美两国前向参与度影响颇为严重,主要归因于简单全球价值链活动的波动。中国前向参与度提高0.22%,简单GVC活动增长0.15%;而美国前向参与度降低0.31%,简单GVC活动减少0.23%。(3)基于产业层面的全球价值链前向与后向分解,特朗普减税将促进中国制造业全球价值链前向参与程度,汽车业、电子业、纺织业分别增长0.21%、0.25%和0.18%。总体而言,美国税改虽减缓了中国GDP增速但提高了实际出口,虽促进了美国经济增速却降低了其实际出口,特朗普减税抑制美国前向GVC参与度,推进中国制造业的全球价值链前向参与程度。
From the perspective of cross-border production activities of value-added trade, this paper constructs the effective linkage between global trade analysis project(GTAP)model and production decomposition model of global value chain(GVC), aiming to study the reconstruction effect of Trump’s tax cut on the participation of China-USA global value chain. Study shows:(1) From a macroeconomic perspective, results based on GTAP simulation show that the tax reform of Trump leads to 1.03% increase in the GDP growth rate of the U.S. and 0.49% decrease in the GDP growth rate of China.(2) Based on the forward and backward decomposition of GVC at the national level, the tax reform of Trump has strong influence mainly on the forward participation of China and the U.S., which is mainly due to the fluctuation of simple GVC activities. The forward participation of China has increased by 0.22%, and the simple GVC activity has increased by 0.15%;while the forward participation of the U.S. has decreased by 0.31%, and the simple GVC activity has decreased by 0.23%.(3) Based on the forward and backward decomposition of GVC at the industrial level, the tax reduction of Trump will promote the forward participation of the GVC in China’s manufacturing industry, with 0.21%, 0.25% and 0.18% increase in the automobile, electronics and textile industries respectively. In general, although the tax reform of the U.S. decreased the GDP growth rate of China, it actually helped to improve export. On the contrary, although it helped to improve the GDP growth rate of the U.S., its actual export is decreased. In fact, the tax cut of Trump has inhibited the forward GVC participation of the U.S. and promoted China’s forward participation of GVC in manufacturing industry.
作者
周玲玲
张恪渝
ZHOU Ling-ling;ZHANG Ke-yu(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;School of Economics,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第10期29-42,共14页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
关键词
美国减税
全球价值链
参与度
全球贸易分析模型
生产分解模型
American Tax Reduction
Global Value Chain
Participation
GTAP Model
Production Decomposition Model
作者简介
周玲玲(1989-),女,山东德州人,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院博士研究生,研究方向为全球价值链、贸易自由化、可计算一般均衡模型;张恪渝(1984-),男,北京人,北京物资学院经济学院讲师,研究方向为全球价值链、投入产出分析、可计算一般均衡模型。
