摘要
针对有寿件初期使用阶段故障率高、需求预测难的问题,提出一种基于寿命分布的有寿件需求预测方法。鉴于有寿件故障样本数据随机截尾特征,选取与之相适应的寿命评估方法,科学确定有寿件寿命分布类型及相关参数。在此基础上,利用MATLAB软件对有寿件进行寿命模拟及需求仿真,以此预测有寿件实际需求状况。在实例中通过与传统工程经验法的对比表明:该方法能够真实反映有寿件的故障及到寿情况,有效预测有寿件需求数量,弥补了工程经验法在有寿件初期使用阶段失效的不足,对提高新研装备完好率具有一定的现实意义。
Aiming at the problem of high failure rate and difficult demand forecast in the initial service stage of life limited items,a demand forecasting method of life limited items based on life-span distribution is proposed.In view of the random truncation characteristics of the life limited items failure sample data,the corresponding life evaluation method is selected to scientifically determine the life distribution type and related parameters of the life limited items.On this basis,the life simulation and the demand simulation are carried out by using MATLAB software to predict the actual demand of life limited items.In the example,the comparison with the traditional engineering experience method shows that the method can reflect the failure and life-span of life limited items,effectively predict the quantity of life limited items,and make up for the deficiency of the failure of engineering experience method in the initial use stage of life limited items,which is of great practical significance for improving the integrity rate of newly developed equipment.
作者
管同傲
侯胜利
GUAN Tongao;HOU Shengli(Air Force Logistics Academy,Xuzhou 221000,China)
出处
《装甲兵学报》
2022年第5期65-69,共5页
Journal of Armored Forces
关键词
有寿件
随机截尾样本
寿命分布
需求预测
life limited items
random censored samples
life distribution
demand forecast
作者简介
管同傲(1997—),男,硕士研究生
