摘要
目的:分析上海市长宁区1973—2013年卵巢癌发病与死亡情况及其长期变化趋势。方法:利用上海市长宁区1973—2013年肿瘤登记资料,计算卵巢癌的粗发病率和粗死亡率及相应的中国人口标准化率(中标率)和世界人口标准化率(世标率)等指标。应用Joinpoint软件分析发病率和死亡率的时间变化趋势,计算年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比。构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分析年龄、时期和出生队列对卵巢癌患者发病及死亡趋势变化的影响。结果:1973—2013年期间,上海市长宁区卵巢癌新发病例数为936例,粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率分别为8.72/10万、6.32/10万和6.00/10万;死亡病例504例,粗死亡率、中标死亡率和世标死亡率分别为4.70/10万、2.99/10万和2.92/10万。41年间卵巢癌粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率分别以平均每年2.96%、1.51%和1.63%的幅度上升;粗死亡率以平均每年2.53%的幅度上升,中标死亡率和世标死亡率的变化趋势则没有统计学意义(P值均>0.05)。年龄-时期-队列模型结果提示,卵巢癌发病率和死亡率随着患者年龄的增加逐渐升高(P值均<0.05),队列效应对卵巢癌的发病率升高有一定作用(P<0.05),而年龄、时期、队列效应对卵巢癌死亡率没有明显影响(P值均>0.05)。结论:1973—2013年上海市长宁区卵巢癌的粗发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率和粗死亡率均呈逐年上升趋势,中标死亡率和世标死亡率的变化趋势不明显;而且,发病率和死亡率随着年龄的增加逐渐上升,提示中老年妇女是卵巢癌防治的重点人群。
Objective:To analyze the secular trends of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai,1973-2013.Methods:Using the data from Shanghai Cancer Registry,the crude rates of incidence and mortality,and the age-standardized rates(ASRs)by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were calculated for ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai,1973-2013.Joinpoint software was utilized to analyze the secular trends of incidence and mortality,as well as to calculate the annual percent changes(APCs)and average annual percent changes(AAPCs).Age-period-cohort model was performed to further investigate the contributions of age,period and cohort effects on the secular trends of incidence and mortality.Results:Total of 936 new incidence cases and 504 deaths in the Changning district of Shanghai were identified during 1973-2013.The crude incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were 8.72/10~5,6.32/10~5 and 6.00/10~5,respectively.The crude mortality rate,age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were 4.70/10~5,2.99/10~5 and 2.92/10~5,respectively.The crude incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population of ovarian cancer showed steady rising trends during 1973-2013,by an average of 2.96%,1.51%and 1.63%per year,respectively.The crude mortality rate increased by an average of 2.53%per year,but the secular trends of age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were not significant(both P>0.05).Ageperiod-cohort analysis showed that both the incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer increased with age(both P<0.05).The increased incidence was affected by the cohort effect(P<0.05).The age,period and cohort effects were not statistically significant on the secular trend of mortality rate(all P>0.05).Conclusion:The crude incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population,and crude mortality rate of ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai show steady rising trends during 1973-2013.The secular trends of age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population are not significant.Both the incidence and mortality rates increased with age,suggesting the elderly women are key population for the prevention of ovarian cancer.
作者
李卓颖
周鹏
谭玉婷
王洁
吴婳
姜玉
张磊
赵文穗
夏庆华
项永兵
LI Zhuoying;ZHOU Peng;TAN Yuting;WANG Jie;WU Hua;JIANG Yu;ZHANG Lei;ZHAO Wensui;XIA Qinghua;XIANG Yongbing(State Key Laboratory of Oncogenes and Related Genes&Department of Epidemiology,Shanghai Cancer Institute,Renji Hospital,Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine,Shanghai 200032,China;Shanghai Changning District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200051,China)
出处
《肿瘤》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期52-59,共8页
Tumor
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2016YFC1302503).
作者简介
Correspondence to:谭玉婷,E-mail:tanyt310_sci@foxmail.com;Correspondence to:周鹏,E-mail:juju7881@126.com
