摘要
国内针对风电项目的投资评估一般采用发电量折减系数的概念,但在海外风电项目的开发投资中,国际金融机构在尽职调查过程中通常将P80~P90的发电量作为财务关键指标来把控项目投资的风险水平,以确定项目贷款额度、利息、年限等,进而会影响项目的收益率。以哈萨克斯坦西部某风电项目评估案例为例,基于该项目的实际资料,在传统的采用折减系数取值方法计算发电量的基础上,对其风能资源和发电量评估的不确定性进行了分析研究,对评估过程中各损耗折减项与不确定性项进行了细化分类,并对其取值对项目发电量的影响进行了研究。研究结果表明:同一个风电项目在P50和P90下的等效满发小时数相差较大,因此采用不同的发电量参照对项目收益率的测算结果影响较大。风电项目的不确定性越大,风险越大;对不确定性影响较大的因素主要为前期测风时段风数据的可靠性、气候的长期变化,以及风电机组的选型和性能等。综合来看,海外风电项目的开发投资决策仅参考P50发电量带来的不确定性和风险较大,建议项目前期开发阶段以P50发电量来判断项目的基础收益能力,以P80~P90发电量作为财务关键指标来判断项目投资的风险水平。期望研究结果可为其他海外风电项目开发投资过程中的风能资源和发电量评估提供决策参考和指导,提高项目评估结果的可靠性和准确性,从而降低项目的投资风险和融资风险。
The investment evaluation of domestic wind power projects generally adopts the concept of power generation capacity reduction coefficient.However,in the development and investment of overseas wind power projects,international financial institutions usually use the P80~P90 power generation capacity as a financial key indicator in the due diligence process to control the risk level of project investment,in order to determine the project loan amount,interest,term,etc.,which in turn affects the project's yield.This paper takes the evaluation case of a wind power project in western Kazakhstan as an example.Based on the actual data of the project,the uncertainty of wind energy resources and power generation capacity evaluation is analyzed and studied on the basis of the traditional method of calculating power generation capacity using reduction factor values.The various loss reduction and uncertainty items in the evaluation process are classified in detail,and the impact of their values on the project's power generation capacity is studied.The research results show that there is a significant difference in the equivalent full load hours of the same wind power project under P50 and P90.Therefore,using different power generation capacity references has a significant impact on the calculation results of project profitability.The greater the uncertainty of wind power projects,the greater the risk.The factors that have a significant impact on uncertainty are mainly the reliability of wind data during the early wind measurement period,long-term climate changes,and the selection and performance of wind turbines.Overall,the development and investment decisions of overseas wind power projects rely solely on P50 power generation capacity,which brings significant uncertainty and risks.It is recommended to use P50 power generation capacity to judge the basic profitability of the project in the early stage of development,and P80~P90 power generation capacity as a financial key indicator to judge the risk level of project investment.The expected research results can provide decision-making references and guidance for the evaluation of wind energy resources and power generation capacity in the development and investment process of other overseas wind power projects,improve the reliability and accuracy of project evaluation results,and thereby reduce investment and financing risks of the project.
作者
陈焕新
陈鸿志
Chen Huanxin;Chen Hongzhi(Envision Energy Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 200001,China;Universal Energy Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 200001,China)
出处
《太阳能》
2025年第1期21-27,共7页
Solar Energy
关键词
海外风电项目
风电投资
风能资源评估
发电量
不确定性
超越概率
overseas wind power projects
wind power investment
evaluation of wind energy resource
power generation capacity
uncertainty
exceeding probability
作者简介
通信作者:陈焕新(1993-),男,学士、中级工程师,主要从事风能资源评估、风电场综合解决方案方面的研究。494114957@qq.com。
