摘要
利用1990—2015年内蒙古乌海市逐日地面、高空气象观测资料和NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料,分析沙尘天气发生时各预报因子的分布特征,确定预报因子的阈值及消空指标,建立基于PP法和指标叠套法的乌海市沙尘天气潜势预报模型。通过2011—2018年逐日回报检验显示,其TS评分为0.24,准确率为89%,说明该模型对乌海市沙尘天气有较好的判别效果和较好的业务应用价值。
Based on the routine surface observation data,sounding data and NCEP/NCAR FNL reanalysis data from 1990 to 2015 in Wuhai city,Inner Mongolia,the distribution characteristics of six forecast factors when dust weather occurs are analyzed,the thresholds and negative indexes are determined,and the potential prediction model of dust weather in Wuhai city based on Perfect Prognosis and index overlap methods is established.Daily return test from 2011 to 2018 shows that its TS score is 0.24 and the accuracy rate is 0.89,indicating that this model has a worthy application value in dust potential forecast.
作者
张迎杰
张庆奎
张洪杰
Zhang Yingjie;Zhang Qingkui;Zhang Hongjie(Songshan District Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Chifeng 024000;Fuyang Meteorological Bureau,Anhui Fuyang 236000;Wuhai Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia Wuhai 016000;Chengdu University of Information Technology,Sichuan Chengdu 610225)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2019年第5期22-24,共3页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
关键词
沙尘
PP法
指标叠套法
潜势预报
Dust
Perfect Prognosis method
Index overlap method
Potential forecast
