摘要
论文利用传统VARx模型通过循环检验方式对财政支出波动的宏观经济效应进行断点分析,结果表明:(1)我国宏观经济系统存在连续的结构调整,财政支出的宏观经济效应存在时变特征;(2)我国财政支出波动存在显著的自相关特征,信贷波动在2015年供给侧结构性改革战略正式提出开始影响财政支出波动;(3)财政支出波动的产出效应和通胀效应在2008年国际金融危机发生后开始出现,供给侧结构性改革战略实施后通胀效应增强,产出效应消失。
This article uses the traditional VARx model to perform a breakpoint analysis on the macroeconomic effects of fluctuations in fiscal expenditure through a circular test. The regression results of the breakpoint VARx model show that:(1) China’s macroeconomic system has continuous structural adjustments, and the macroeconomic effects of fiscal expenditures have time-varying characteristics.(2) China’s fiscal expenditure fluctuations have significant autocorrelation characteristics. In 2015, the supply-side structural reform strategy was formally proposed to begin to affect the fluctuation of fiscal expenditure.(3) The output effect and inflation effect of fiscal expenditure fluctuations began to appear after the 2008 international financial crisis. After the implementation of the supply-side structural reform strategy, the inflation effect increased and the output effect disappeared.
出处
《投资研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期142-158,共17页
Review of Investment Studies
关键词
供给侧结构性改革
积极财政政策
断点分析
向量自回归
Supply-Side Structural Reform
Active Fiscal Policy
Breakpoint Analysis
Vector Autoregressive Model
作者简介
许 坤,中国人民大学公共财政与公共政策研究所博士研究生,研究方向为财政政策与货币政策;卢倩倩,中国人民大学公共财政与公共政策研究所博士研究生,研究方向为宏观经济政策改革;许文立,安徽大学经济学院助理教授,研究方向为宏观经济政策评估。
